Today, "Lever Cattle" No Longer Exist.

The overall bubble of listed securities companies is also increasingly prominent. If the market forces lead to two barrels of oil and a downward revision of the brokerage sector, the bailout market is likely to become more mature and difficult. Perhaps only a small number of blue chips, which are full of performance and cash flow, will be recognized by investors after repeated economic cycles and regulatory cycles.

Today " Lever cattle "No longer exists." growing cattle "is badly hurt. The three quarter of the capital market is expected to see two main points. First, the national team is unlikely to bring about a forced switch. Two, growth stocks are still the future hope. From the macro and liquidity perspective, the capital market in the three quarter is very sleepy. A series of concussion shows that before October 2014, it was a new bull based on growth stocks, and then it was a leveraged cattle based on inside and outside financing. This is the root of the reform from the top down to the macro but not the clue of the stock market's ups and downs. In view of this, the three quarter reform with macro and reform is generally frustrated. Today, "lever cattle" no longer exist. Growing cattle "Badly hurt." The capital market in the three quarter is expected to see the following characteristics:

First, the "national team" is unlikely to bring forcible handover. We have written long articles, pointing out that investment style can not be switched. The root cause is not only too hot in the gem, but also in the reform of big blue chips with no real market trend. Investors are just playing the role of speculation and arbitrage. This dilemma will not cause any substantial changes due to disaster relief, but will make market funds even more reluctant to rescue the market targets. The obvious threat comes from at least two barrels of oil and the brokerage board, with 2 times the net market share of PetroChina, the oil and gas exchange rate, which is 3 times higher than that of Exxon. Its profitability is only 1/3 of Exxon, its market value is about 20% higher than that of Exxon, and its oil and gas reserve is less than 50% of Exxon. After a series of operations, two barrels of oil are hard to match its share price. The overall bubble of listed securities companies is also increasingly prominent. If the market forces lead to two barrels of oil and a downward revision of the brokerage sector, the bailout market is likely to become more mature and difficult. This series of operations has made the "forced switch" more difficult and not less. Maybe only a few blue chips that are running through the business cycle and regulatory cycle can be recognized by investors. Manufacturing enterprises 。

Two, growth stocks are still the future hope. When we examine the US growth stock bubble, we may also have to admit that to solve the problem of valuation of growth stocks, we rely on the power of example, that is, a few excellent leading enterprises have ignited people's confidence in most growing enterprises with their outstanding achievements. Two, we are replacing old bubbles with new bubbles. For example, the mobile terminal of high growth is a collective replacement for the staggering PC end. If it is necessary to put the blue chip approach on the growth body, it essentially negates the necessity of the existence of multi-level capital market. After the shock, the gem is still waiting for the real leader enterprise, waiting for incremental liquidity injection and risk appetite repair. This process is not easy.

From now on, the intention of regulation may be to expect the market to run in a stable box. The optimist sees the top of the box, and the pessimist sees the bottom of the box. But in the three quarter, the stock market is afraid of a sharp split. What will lead to empty emotions? Is the Fed raising interest rates? Is it suspicious of two barrels of oil and brokerages? When you do your best to protect bulls, they may become empty and become an undisputed market trend.